سخنرانی دکتر فرزاد سعیدی مورخ سه شنبه 14 بهمن ماه 99 - ساعت 15:30

Why So Negative? The Effect of Monetary Policy on Bank Credit Supply across the Euro Area

Farzad Saidi

Assistant Professor of Finance, Boston University

 

Abstract

This paper studies the transmission of monetary-policy rates to banks' credit supply to firms. A simple model of an ”augmented“' bank capital channel characterizes the transmission in positive as well as in negative territory. The model allows for risk taking and a different pass-through of the policy rate to banks' cost of funding because of a zero lower bound (ZLB) on retail deposit rates but not on wholesale debt. We examine the European Central Bank's negative interest rate policy in 2014, and use the unique combination of two confidential credit registers to exploit variation in the pass-through to deposit rates across the euro area. In the periphery (Portugal) the pass-through is intact because deposit rates are far away from the ZLB, while in the core (Germany) the pass-through is impaired because of the ZLB on deposit rates. We find that in Portugal the negative interest rate policy acts like a standard rate cut, and expands credit supply especially for low-equity banks. In contrast, in Germany the policy is less expansionary and leads to risk taking by high-deposit banks. We use the convex combination of our estimates to characterize the transmission of the 2014 rate cuts across the entire euro area.

Biography

Farzad is a financial economist, and his research is centered on issues in banking and financial intermediation, monetary policy, and the interplay between finance and the macroeconomy. Prior to moving to Boston University Questrom School of Business, he served as a faculty member at Stockholm School of Economics and University of Cambridge. He earned his PhD in Economics from New York University in 2013.